November 5: from $75.6k to $81.1k in twelve hours, the largest daily gain since September 21

01What changed since the last note

Bitcoin is $79,602 at 12:49 UTC, 3.2% above the last note’s $77,138 and up 1.01% in 24 hours. Tuesday, November 3, closed at $77,345, up 0.88%. Early on Wednesday, price dipped through the hourly support at $76.3k, its fourth test since the Binance hack, and touched $75,618 at 03:05, the lowest since September 16. No hourly close went under that support’s lower edge, $75.95k. Price climbed through the morning, then ran from $78,269 at 14:00 to $81,105 at 15:15, 3.6% in 75 minutes. Wednesday closed at $80,434, up 3.99%: the largest daily gain since September 21 and the highest close since October 28. Today held between $80.1k and $80.8k until noon, then slipped to $79,535 in the 12:00 hour.

Scoring: issue 5’s 24-hour range, $75.6k to $79.1k, resolved at 16:00 on November 3 at $77,576, and issue 6’s, $75.1k to $78.7k, resolved at 10:00 yesterday at $78,274: two hits. All four open 7-day calls are inside. Issue 2’s, $75,090 to $85,203, resolves at tonight’s close; price is 5.7% above its floor and 7.0% under its ceiling. Wednesday’s low came within 0.7% of that floor, but calls are scored on the close. The nearest edge now is issue 6’s ceiling, $82,257, 3.3% above. Both 30-day calls are inside.

02Where price sits

Price is inside the accumulate band, 1.75% under its top edge at $81.0k. Wednesday’s high went just over that edge and the day closed back under it. MVRV Z is 0.86, up from 0.74 on November 3. Perpetual funding is at the 0.01% default per 8 hours, and open interest on the three venues the site tracks is 198,095 BTC, down 2.7% since November 3, so the rise came without added leverage there. 30-day realized volatility is 31.5%; DVOL is 37.0, in the lowest fifth of the past year.

03The levels either side

Price sits in two zones at once: a 4-hour level at $79.2k ($78.75k to $79.69k), and the bottom of the daily resistance zone at $81.2k ($79.5k to $82.8k, on the chart’s default 1-year view).

Above, 5-minute levels from this morning’s range sit at $80.0k, $80.2k and $80.3k. Then come the 4-hour resistance at $80.8k ($80.3k to $81.2k), where today’s high of $80,822 stopped, and Wednesday’s high on hourly bars at $81.0k. Higher up, 4-hour resistance sits at $81.9k and $83.1k, and the long-term weekly zone runs from $80.5k to $89.2k; the levels panel shows it as $84.9k.

Below, hourly support sits at $78.7k ($78.53k to $78.87k), $78.0k and $77.5k. Then come the 4-hour support at $75.9k and the daily support at $75.2k ($74.1k to $76.2k, September’s lows), where Wednesday turned. Under that is the weekly support at $71.8k ($69.0k to $74.7k). In walk-forward tests, daily levels have held a little more often than random prices; hourly and 4-hour levels have not.

Wednesday’s low turned inside the daily support; this morning’s high stopped inside the 4-hour resistance.

04What the cone allows, and the call

The forecast issued at 11:00 UTC, before the 12:00 dip, gives a 24-hour 80% range of $78.4k to $82.2k, a 7-day range of $74.9k to $86.0k and a 30-day range of $69.0k to $93.3k. Over 30 days it gives $90k a 33% chance of trading and $70k 24%, against 17% and 42% in issue 6.

This issue’s call: the forecast’s 80% range for November 12 is $74,893 to $86,003, and its 95% range is $72,024 to $89,429. The November 12 close scores it.

None of this is a trade signal. It describes where price sits and the range the models allow.