Notes
One page a month on where bitcoin sits and what the forecast says, with short-term reads in between, written from the same numbers the chart shows. Each issue makes one call, 30 days for the monthly pages and 7 for the short reads, and every call is scored when it resolves, misses included.
- Issues
- 8
- Calls resolved
- 0
- Inside the 80% range
- —
- Open
- 8
- Nov 6Issue 8Latest
November 6: the Nasdaq’s worst day since April 2025, and bitcoin’s largest drop since June
A selloff in AI and chip stocks after the midterm results took the Nasdaq down 5.52%, and bitcoin fell 5.55% to close back on the daily support at $75.2k. What happened, where price sits now, the levels either side, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $75.8k
- MVRV Z
- 0.71
- × 200W MA
- 1.12×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 13
- Nov 5Issue 7
November 5: from $75.6k to $81.1k in twelve hours, the largest daily gain since September 21
Bitcoin dipped to its lowest since September 16 early on Wednesday, then rose 7.3% in about twelve hours and closed up 3.99%. Where it sits now, the levels either side on each timeframe, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $79.6k
- MVRV Z
- 0.86
- × 200W MA
- 1.18×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 12
- Nov 3Issue 6
November 3: the lowest close since September 17, and a third hold at $76.3k
Bitcoin slid 1.99% on Monday to its lowest daily close in seven weeks, then bounced this morning off the same hourly support that held twice after the Binance hack. Where it sits, the levels either side, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $77.1k
- MVRV Z
- 0.74
- × 200W MA
- 1.14×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 10
- Nov 2Issue 5
November 2026: October fell 7.3%, its weakest since 2014, and price is back inside the accumulate band
Bitcoin held just above the accumulate band for most of October, then the Binance hack pushed it back inside. How the month closed, where price sits now, the levels for November and the range the models allow to December 2.
- Price
- $77.4k
- MVRV Z
- 0.78
- × 200W MA
- 1.15×
30d callopen · resolves Dec 2
- Oct 31Issue 4
October 31: options expired within 0.1% of max pain, and bitcoin has held a 2.5% range since
About $11 to 12 billion of October bitcoin options settled on Friday near $78k, two days after the Binance hack. Did the expiry move price, where it sits now, the levels either side, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $77.4k
- MVRV Z
- 0.75
- × 200W MA
- 1.15×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 7
- Oct 30Issue 3
October 30: a Binance hack takes bitcoin 6.8% off its high, into September’s support
Reports of a multi-billion-dollar Binance hack broke late on October 29, and bitcoin fell from $81.9k to $76.3k by 02:05 UTC, out of the week’s box. Where it landed, the levels either side, what the cones allow now, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $77.9k
- MVRV Z
- 0.78
- × 200W MA
- 1.16×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 6
- Oct 29Issue 2
October 29: a week in a 3.5% box, astride the band’s top edge
Since the October 22 drop, bitcoin has traded between $79.1k and $81.9k, back and forth across the accumulate band’s top edge. A short-term read: the levels either side, what the 24-hour and 7-day cones allow, and one 7-day call.
- Price
- $80.2k
- MVRV Z
- 0.88
- × 200W MA
- 1.19×
7d callopen · resolves Nov 5
- Oct 24Issue 1
October 2026: on the band’s top edge, in the quietest market in years
Price has closed just above the accumulate band all month, realized volatility is near a five-year low, and the cycle-low window has 62 days to run. What the numbers say, and what they do not.
- Price
- $80.7k
- MVRV Z
- 0.87
- × 200W MA
- 1.21×
30d callopen · resolves Nov 23
A new note each month. Readings are frozen at issue; the chart for any day is a rewind away. A reading of public data, not investment advice.