November 3: the lowest close since September 17, and a third hold at $76.3k
Bitcoin slid 1.99% on Monday to its lowest daily close in seven weeks, then bounced this morning off the same hourly support that held twice after the Binance hack. Where it sits, the levels either side, and a new 7-day call.
- Price
- $77,138 −4.7% vs band top
- MVRV Z
- 0.74 Fair · 0 to 2
- 200W MA
- $67.4k price 1.14× above
- Cycle clock
- 90 d left in low window
01What changed since yesterday
Bitcoin is $77,138 at 11:12 UTC, 0.3% below the last note and down 0.56% in 24 hours. Monday, November 2, peaked at $78,750 at 03:45 UTC, slid from 15:00 and touched $76,572 at 20:55. It closed at $76,674, down 1.99%, the lowest daily close since September 17. This morning it dipped to $76,268 at 06:10 and has since recovered 1.1%.
Scoring: issue 4’s 24-hour range, $75.5k to $79.2k, resolved at 09:00 Sunday at $78,122: a hit. Issue 5’s 24-hour range, $75.6k to $79.1k, resolves at 16:00 today; price has stayed between $76,268 and $77,576 since it was issued. The three open 7-day calls are all inside. The nearest edge is issue 2’s floor, $75.1k, 2.7% below, and that call resolves on November 5.
02Where price sits
Price is inside the accumulate band, 4.7% under its top edge at $80.9k. MVRV Z is 0.74. Leverage is steady: perpetual funding is at the 0.01% default per 8 hours, and open interest on the three venues the site tracks is 203,662 BTC, up 1.6% since October 31. 30-day realized volatility is 29.6%; DVOL read 39.3 at Monday’s close.
Hourly candles, Bitstamp BTC/USD, UTC; the last candle is still open. Shaded: the range since Monday’s close. Lines: hourly resistance at $78.7k and $78.1k, hourly support at $76.3k, and the daily support at $75.2k.
03The levels either side
Below, the hourly support at $76.3k ($75.95k to $76.48k) has now turned price three times: at $76,320 on the night of the hack, at $76,173 on October 30 and at $76,268 this morning. No hourly close has been under $76,453 since the hack. A weaker hourly support sits at $76.7k, just above it. Under $76.3k comes the daily support at $75.2k ($74.1k to $76.2k, September’s lows, on the chart’s default 1-year view), then the long-term weekly support at $71.8k ($69.0k to $74.7k).
Above, hourly resistance sits at $77.7k, $78.1k and $78.7k, the last two holding Sunday’s and Monday’s highs. Past them come the band’s top edge at $80.9k and the daily resistance at $81.2k ($79.5k to $82.8k), which sits at the bottom of the long-term weekly resistance zone, $80.5k to $89.2k. The site’s levels panel shows that zone by its centre, $84.9k.
Chance of trading at each level at any point in the next 7 days, from the scored cone. Levels at issue: $78.7k, $78.1k, $77.7k, $76.7k and $76.3k from hourly bars, $81.2k and $75.2k from daily bars, $84.9k and $71.8k from the long-term weekly set.
An hourly close under $76.3k would leave the daily support at $75.2k as the next level; above, the first daily level is $81.2k.
04What the cone allows, and the call
The forecast issued at 10:00 UTC gives a 24-hour 80% range of $75.1k to $78.7k, a 7-day range of $71.9k to $82.3k and a 30-day range of $66.3k to $89.2k. Over 30 days it gives $90k a 17% chance of trading and $70k 42%.
Forecast issued 10:00 UTC on November 3, from a spot of $76,892. No direction is assumed: the median is the spot.
This issue’s call: the forecast’s 80% range for November 10 is $71,876 to $82,257, and its 95% range is $69,195 to $85,444. The November 10 close scores it.
None of this is a trade signal. It describes where price sits and the range the models allow.
The forecast’s ranges at issue, stored with the note. The Tuesday, November 10, 2026 close scores it in 7 days; the result shows here and on the notes page.
A reading of public data on the issue day, not a forecast of direction or investment advice.